Oil Pushing Lower
Crude prices are coming under heavy selling pressure today as easing geopolitical fears weigh on sentiment. The renewed prospect of a Russia Ukraine peace deal is back in focus following news that Zelensky has agreed to take part in negotiations centered around Trump’s peace plan. Trump’s proposed 28-point peace agreement, sketched out between Washington and Moscow, includes land concessions from Ukraine which previously have been cited as a dealbreaker. However, with Zelensky signalling a willingness to negotiate there is hope that the time for a deal is finally approaching after 4 long years of war.
Oversupply Fears
If successful in implementing the peace deal, Russia would be allowed to rejoin the G7, making it the G8, with all sanctions lifted. Consequently, cure traders are eyeing the prospect of Russian oil returning to the wider market. Given the oversupply fears which have been flagged by the EIA and OPEC recently, the timing of such a move could be firmly bearish for cure prices next year as the market recalibrates around the return of Russian supply.
Hawkish Fed Repricing
Alongside geopolitical developments, crude is also being weighed on by a less hawkish Fed outlook. The release of the delayed September NFP data yesterday saw a jump in the headline reading which has create further pushback against December easing expectations. With USD looking poised for furtehr upside near-term, crude prices are at risks of a fresh push lower.
Technical Views
Crude
The failure at 61.39 has seen the market grinding lower in a choppy fashion. However, sellers are starting to gain momentum now with price back under the bear trend line and testing support at the 57.57 level. With momentum studies bearish, risks of a deeper push towards 55.07 are seen.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.