a resolution that could stabiliseDaily Market Outlook, April 1, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

Asian stock markets experienced their most significant rally in a year, while government bonds extended their upward momentum, as optimism grew that the Middle East conflict, which has roiled global markets and disrupted energy supplies, might be nearing a resolution. Regional equities surged 4.4%, rebounding from their sharpest monthly drop in over 17 years. This recovery came after President Donald Trump expressed confidence that the U.S. could bring the conflict with Iran to a close within two to three weeks. The rally echoed gains on Wall Street, where investors anticipated that a resolution could stabilise oil supplies and boost global economic growth. Meanwhile, futures suggested European markets could open 1.9% higher. The dollar edged lower, while U.S. Treasuries continued to gain traction following Trump’s remarks. However, uncertainty surrounding the conflict and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz kept oil prices volatile. Brent crude hovered around $105 per barrel, giving up some of the losses it posted earlier in the week. A potential end to hostilities is expected to restore some investor confidence after the five-week conflict shook energy and equity markets, pushing several indices into correction territory. Market participants are also turning their attention to how policymakers will address elevated energy costs and supply chain disruptions, as well as how these factors might impact upcoming corporate earnings and broader economic activity. Trump is set to address the nation on Wednesday at 9 p.m. Eastern Time, promising an "important update" on Iran. He hinted that Tehran still has the opportunity to strike a deal with Washington, but he stressed that such an agreement is not a prerequisite for ending the conflict. Elsewhere, gold extended its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session, trading near $4,670 per ounce. Despite this recent recovery, gold prices suffered a steep decline of nearly 12% in March, marking their worst monthly performance since October 2008.

The Iran conflict, though only a month old, is already impacting Eurozone inflation. March's flash HICP data reveals energy prices surged to a 4.9% y/y gain from February's -3.1%, the highest since early 2022, ending a year-long deflationary streak. Headline inflation rose to 2.5% y/y from 1.9%, slightly below expectations, due to slower services inflation (3.2% y/y from 3.4%) and a dip in non-energy goods (0.5% from 0.7%). Core inflation eased to 2.3% y/y from 2.4%. The ongoing rise in oil prices suggests further inflationary pressures may emerge. While the ECB may not immediately shift policy due to the slightly lower headline figure, prolonged conflict raises the risk of escalating near-term inflation, likely intensifying hawkish stances despite potential demand risks.

The February JOLTS report highlights the fragile state of the US labour market. Job openings aligned with expectations (6.882M vs. 6.890M forecast), but a significant upward revision from January (7.240M vs. 6.946M) skews comparisons. Layoffs increased to 1.721M (from 1.660M revised), while hiring fell to 4.849M—a new low since the pandemic and comparable only to 2014 levels outside that period. Net hiring stood at -122K, worse than January's -92K payroll figure. The decline is not solely due to healthcare, as the trend holds across sectors. Quits also dropped to 2.974M, down from 3.131M in January and far below the 4.4M peak in early 2021. This data, preceding the Iran war, suggests no imminent recovery, with geopolitical tensions likely offsetting any confidence gains from prior Fed rate cuts.

Overnight Headlines

  • UAE Wants To Force Hormuz Open And Is Willing To Join The Fight

  • Trump To Address Nation On Iran Wed, After Hinting At War’s End

  • China, Pakistan Present New Iran Deal, Ceasefire To Open Hormuz

  • Oil Steadies As Traders Weigh Outlook For Resolution To Iran War

  • Bond Traders Ditch Inflation Bets As Oil Surge Threatens Growth

  • South Korea Exports Continue To Surge Despite Escalating Iran Risks

  • Japan’s Manufacturer Mood Improves, Supporting BoJ’s Rate Stance

  • Asia Manufacturing Holds Up But Cracks Show As War Lifts Prices

  • Australia Manufacturing Slips To Contraction On War Disruptions

  • OpenAI Valued At $852B After Completing $122B Round

  • OpenAI Raises $3B From Retail Investors In Record Funding Haul

  • Oracle Lays Off Workers Amid Heavy AI Investment

  • Nike Sales Gain Ground As Sport-Focused Push Produces Results

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

  • Wednesday 01/04: EURUSD 1.1450 (€3.6bn), 1.1450 (€573m), 1.1475 (€843m), 1.1500 (€5.3bn), 1.1505 (€1.5bn), 1.1525 (€1.1bn), 1.1530 (€843m), 1.1550 (€656m), 1.1565 (€814m), 1.1570 (€655m), 1.1600 (€1.1bn), 1.1620 (€1.9bn), 1.1625 (€2.6bn), 1.1630 (€1.2bn), 1.1635 (€829m), 1.1645 (€788m), 1.1650 (€3.2bn), 1.1655 (€825m), 1.1700 (€3.6bn); 

  • USDJPY 156.50 ($2.2bn), 158.00 ($529m), 159.10 ($755m); 

  • GBPUSD 1.3000 (£550m), 1.3320 (£548m), 1.3475 (£822m); 

  • EURGBP 0.7885 ($547m); 

  • USDCAD 1.3900 ($630m); 

  • AUDUSD 0.6800 (A$1.7bn), 0.6900 (A$525m), 0.7035 (A$870m), 0.7050 (A$600m). 

  • Thursday 02/04: EURUSD 1.1400 (€929m), 1.1425 (€551m), 1.1500 (€1.3bn), 1.1540 (€778m), 1.1590 (€619m), 1.1650 (€1.3bn); 

  • USDJPY 157.00 ($1.5bn), 157.35 ($606m), 159.00 ($917m), 159.75 ($858m), 160.00 ($1.0bn), 160.50 ($575m); 

  • GBPUSD 1.3705 ($730m), 1.3825 ($558m); 

  • AUDUSD 0.6800 (A$885m), 0.6900 (A$654m), 0.7025 (A$740m).

CFTC Positions as of March 27, 2026: 

  • Equity fund speculators have raised their net short position on the S&P 500 CME by 2,932 contracts, bringing the total to 329,428. Meanwhile, equity fund managers have decreased their net long position in the S&P 500 CME by 11,506 contracts, reducing it to 872,951. 

  • Speculators have also reduced their net short position in CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures by 325,016 contracts, now at 1,448,436. In contrast, they have increased their net short position in CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures by 44,009 contracts, totaling 641,887. A rise in net short positions was also seen in CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures, up by 155,512 contracts to 1,638,179, and in CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures, which rose by 8,050 contracts to 279,187. Additionally, speculators have cut their net long position in CBOT US Treasury bonds futures by 2,194 contracts, leaving it at 6,570. 

  • The Bitcoin net long position stands at 2,106 contracts. The Swiss franc shows a net short position of -27,097 contracts, while the British pound's net short position is -58,422 contracts. The euro has a net long position of 9,279 contracts, and the Japanese yen reports a net short position of -62,806 contracts.

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 6400 Target 6700

  • Below 6500 Target 6150

EURUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 1.1675 Target 1.1730

  • Below 1.15 Target 1.1350

GBPUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 1.35 Target 1.3650

  • Below 1.3485 Target 1.3150

USDJPY 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 159 Target 161.50

  • Below 157 Target 156

XAUUSD

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 4500 Target 4850

  • Below 4250 Target 4000

BTCUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 79.5k Target 81.5k

  • Below 78k Target 53k

1 / 6